Where is personal computing headed?
As a technology industry analyst I get asked this question quite often. My answer, although it’s hard to wrap our brains around now, is that we are moving away from a keyboard- and mouse-centric computing experience to a touch computing experience. Tablets represent the beginning of that shift and are the devices that will usher in the touch computing era.
Just to put the astonishing growth of tablets into perspective: This year alone tablets will see 255% unit growth to about 55-58 million units respectfully. By 2015, tablets will have seen 750% shipment growth. During the same timeframe laptops will only see 83% growth.
Although tablets are compelling devices on their own, it is my opinion that the touch computing element they bring is the cause of this incredible growth.
Why Touch Computing?
Touch computing represents a much more expansive opportunity for computing in the post-PC era primarily because it fits into the category called “Natural User Interface,” which basically means it’s a more natural way to interact with electronics. Speech is another example of natural user interface we will see more deeply integrated into next-generation devices but that is still at least another 3-5 years out.
Devices that have little or no learning curve for all demographics break down barriers that typically exist when adopting new technologies.
A good example of this is how the iPad has been gaining traction with older adults and younger children. For kids, the iPad delivers an easier and more natural experience using a touch computing device, like an iPhone or iPad, than a PC does. And with older adults, we have found in our research that they are much more comfortable using touch as a computer interface than they are with using a mouse.
Learning to use a mouse and a keyboard takes some time to master. Both my kids—who are six and eight—still have issues using a PC, but they have no issues whatsoever when using my iPad.
To further emphasize my point, consider this: 41 of the top 50 education apps in the iTunes app store are for kids under the age of 10. Furthermore, 32 of those 41 apps are for kids under the age of six. We are finding that especially with children, the touch interface has no learning curve and they adapt to it very quickly.
But the learning curve barriers that get broken down with touch computing are not just limited to kids or older adults.
What about the billions of people on the planet who have had little to no PC experience at all? The touch computing platform that exists on tablets can bring computing to entire generations of new consumers where the PC could not. Because of this we will likely see the adoption cycles of these devices happen much quicker.
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